What If OTAs Are the Wrong Signal on Travel Demand?

In a recent Connecting the Dots column, I wrote about travel’s shrinking share of the consumer wallet. This week, I build on that with a key question: 

Have OTAs stopped being a reliable proxy for travel demand?

For years, when we wanted to know how travel was doing, we would look to Booking Holdings and Expedia. If gross bookings were up, demand was strong. Down meant weak demand. 

It was simple. Now it’s worth challenging.

I’ve been reviewing Citizens Bank’s monthly credit card tracker, and the most revealing chart compares travel spend on its cards with the gross booking volumes of Booking Holdings, Expedia, and Airbnb.

If OTA performance truly tracked underlying travel demand, you’d expect a clear relationship: higher travel spend would correspon